The Federal Reserve is widely expected to cut interest rates in September—their first since early 2024. While a rate cut doesn’t instantly drop 30-year mortgage rates, it does ease pressure on borrowing costs overall. Think of it as the first domino that could make financing just a little friendlier heading into 2026.
National Market Outlook
- Mortgage rates may only dip slightly at first, but the direction is what matters—lower rates mean more buyers re-enter the market.
- As affordability improves, more homeowners will feel comfortable listing, helping sales pick up nationwide.
- Prices are expected to rise modestly, which is healthier and more sustainable than the wild swings of the last few years.
Southwest Florida Market Outlook
- Bonita Springs, Estero, & Naples: Right now, buyers have the upper hand with more inventory and longer days on market. As rates ease, expect competition to heat back up.
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Cape Coral & Fort Myers: Prices have pulled back more than other parts of the region, creating opportunity for buyers. A rate cut could help stabilize this market first.
Looking Ahead to 2026
If the Fed continues trimming rates, we could see 30-year mortgage rates back in the high-5% to low-6% range—a level that could unlock move-up sellers and spark stronger sales activity. In Southwest Florida, that likely means:
- Bonita Springs, Estero, & Naples: Steady price growth of about 3–5% and faster-moving homes.
- Cape Coral & Fort Myers: A recovery from the recent softening and a return to price gains.
👉 Bottom line: Right now, buyers in Southwest Florida have a window of opportunity—more homes to choose from, more negotiating room, and the potential to refinance later if rates drop further.
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