Southwest Florida Housing Market | March 2025

Often when writing our Southwest Florida housing market reports, we struggle to find data that anyone will truly find interesting. The real estate market is notoriously slow to respond to the various factors that affect it, which means a lot of the time, we’re just “coasting,” with no significant changes happening from month to month.

This quarter, however, that is not the case! Our real estate market is rapidly changing and transitioning away from the seller’s market we’ve recently become accustomed to. With a fast-changing market like this, short-term data is insightful but doesn’t paint a full picture, so we’re going to zoom out and show you what’s really going on with the Southwest Florida housing market. The following is based on Naples, Bonita Springs & Estero housing market data.

Inventory

If you’ve read our past market reports, you’re familiar with how “months of inventory” is measured. Simply, it’s the number of months it would take to sell all CURRENT listings, at the current rate of sales, assuming no new listings come on the market. Typically, a seller’s market will have less than 5 months worth of inventory and a balanced market can have anywhere from 6 to 9 months worth of inventory. Anything above that is a buyer’s market. Currently, there are 14 months of inventory on the market.

In the graph above, the biggest inventory spikes you see are at the beginning of each year. This is when a lot of homeowners decide to sell. Conversely, the beginning of the year is when we see the LEAST number of sales. This is why you see the biggest inventory spikes from January to March. By April or May, the spring buyers flock down and start chipping away at our inventory. This trend is essentially the same every, single year.

The end result of our spring buying season is much more manageable inventory levels, setting us up to have a more balanced market come summer and fall. Historically, our spring and summer buyers bring our overall inventory levels down by about half. We are forecasting that, by summer’s end, we’ll be back down to about 8 months of inventory, from our current 14.

The past year, we’ve also seen a roughly 10% uptick in new construction homes hitting the market in Bonita Springs, Naples and Estero.

Sale Price to List Price Ratio

Witout taking a glance at the dates, you can probably guess when Covid started with a quick glance at the graph above.

The sale price to list price ratio measures the percentage of the original asking price that homes are selling for. Obviously, 100% of asking price is NOT sustainable. This metric is useful in gauging the overall market at a glance. To us, it signifies a market that is desperately trying to stabilize after a period of intense appreciation. We ended February with most homes closing at 96% of asking price, which historically, it a great number.

Median Sale Prices

We ended February with a median sale price of $634,000 across Bonita Springs, Naples, and Estero–an increase of about 2% from February of 2024.

Our yearly peaks for median sale prices are usually from mid-March through May. This is caused by an increase in sales during this time and a respective decrease in inventory. While we don’t know exactly how prices will respond this year, based on the above graph, it’s safe to say we will have a spring buying season that will rival our 2024 season in terms of median sale prices.

Pre-Covid, we would typically see 3-4% appreciation year over year in Bonita Springs, Naples, and Estero. From 2020 to 2023, those rules went out the window. As home prices climbed, however, so did interest rates, taxes, and insurance. Despite all this, our market has maintained a relatively stable median sale price over the past year, and we continue to see a healthy number of sales.

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Number of Sales

We ended February with a total of 799 sales across Bonita, Naples, and Estero–down 10% from February of 2024.

Our Thoughts

An excess of inventory, which is common this time of year (but slightly higher than in past years), is causing a temporary decline in sale prices in some neighborhoods. Overall, median home prices and rate of sales are stable. Some sellers are having to be more flexible with price, but our spring buying season is right around the corner. Our sales over the next couple of months will dictate how the remainder of the year goes.

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